Early PL title decider?

We may only be four games into the new PL season, but we already have a top-of-the-table six-pointer on our hands this week in the form of Manchester City vs Arsenal. The champions and runners-up from last season respectively, the Citizens and the Gunners look likely to go toe-to-toe once more throughout the 2024/25 campaign.

Considering there were just two points separating Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta last time out, the two fixtures between Man City and Arsenal look to be extremely important this season. Let’s take a look through the history between England’s two most impressive teams at the moment – as well as some team news, injury updates, and the latest odds.

Man City vs Arsenal

Manchester City have lifted the PL trophy in each of the last four seasons – a feat no other team has achieved in the history of the competition. It stands to reason that five wins in a row would also be a new record for the blue half of Manchester this year, but Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal will have something to say about that particular aim. While Liverpool and Man City went head-to-head for the title for a number of seasons, Arsenal seem to have taken over the mantle as Pep Guardiola’s closest rivals. The Gunners have finished second to City in each of the last two seasons. In 2022/23, they fell five points short of their title rivals, closing the gap to just two in 2023/24. That kind of progress would tend to suggest that Arsenal should win the league by a single point this time around, but football rarely follows such linear trends.

The Venue

Etihad Stadium – Sunday 22 September. Kick-off: 16:30 local time.

Man City moved to the Etihad Stadium in the summer of 2003, and it has hosted numerous clashes between the Citizens and Arsenal in that time. In the early years, it was a happy hunting ground for Arsenal, but that has not been the case since City’s takeover in 2008, and particularly since Pep Guardiola’s arrival in Manchester. In fact, the last time the Gunners won away at City in the PL was way back in the 2014/15 season – a 2-0 victory. In the last five League fixtures between the two sides at the Etihad, Man City have won four and drawn one, scoring 16 goals in the process.

Form Guide

You literally cannot beat Man City’s form guide coming into this one. Four league matches down, four wins under their belt. The Pep Guardiola machine looks as imperious as ever. Even when City have a bad day, they have a habit of getting the job done one way or another. Arsenal have by no means been poor at the start of the 2024/25 campaign either, currently sitting in second in the table. The Gunners and the Citizens seem to have reverted to type already this season, with the former chasing just behind the latter. After Arsenal’s impressive 1-0 win over Spurs last weekend, they boast a record of three wins and one draw in the league this season, with that draw only coming after a harsh sending-off against Brighton. While Arsenal will be disappointed not to be on level points with City heading into this weekend, they will be relishing the chance to leapfrog their title rivals with a win at the Etihad.

Team News and Injury News

Let’s take a look at some of the team and injury news as we head into the first title six-pointer of the 2024/25 season.

Man City: Man City have a relatively clean bill of health heading into one of their biggest games of the season, as well as one of the richest squads in general. Nathan Ake is expected to be sidelined until October with a thigh problem, and they lost their talented #52 to a long-term injury as well. Apart from that, Pep should have a full complement of players to choose from.

Arsenal: The Gunners have a few more things to think about heading into their match at the Etihad. On the plus side, Declan Rice returns from his one-match ban following that red card against Brighton. On the downside, their captain seems unlikely to make it back in time to captain the side against Man City. Mikel Merino is expected to be out with a shoulder injury until October, and is joined on the sidelines by Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee) and Kieran Tierney (thigh). Gabriel Jesus returned to training last week and Riccardo Calafiori only picked up a small injury on international duty so could be in line to return. Bukayo Saka did have to leave the field early against Tottenham with an injury last week, but Arteta and co will hope he bounces back in time for this weekend (as he often does).

Players to Watch

It would be easier to name the players you shouldn’t watch! Man City and Arsenal are the best two teams in England right now – if not the world. Both XIs are littered with an embarrassment of talent. These kinds of fixtures are often decided by flashpoints, so the matchup of their super striker – the best goalscorer in the world – against William Saliba and Gabriel – the best defensive duo in the country – is destined to be where the match is won or lost. At the other end of the pitch, Bukayo Saka may fancy his chances of finding some space on the left side of Man City’s defence, particularly when Gvardiol or Lewis inverts into midfield. Kai Havertz will also look to find some joy in the pockets between Rodri and the two centre-backs. The heart of midfield will also prove an interesting battle, with Kevin de Bruyne and Rodri coming up against the likes of Declan Rice and Thomas Partey.

Head-to-head Record

Since that first match all the way back in 1893, Man City and Arsenal have met a total of 169 times in all competitions. Thanks to Arsenal’s dominance before the 2008 takeover, they boast a far better record in the fixture than their Manchester counterparts. The Reds have 83 wins from 169 games, compared to just 48 in the sky-blue corner (with 38 draws). Arsenal have scored 274 goals in the fixture, with City managing 203.

However, it is a completely different story when you look at the more recent history between the two sides. This fixture last season ended in a 0-0 snore draw at the Etihad, but that is by far Arsenal’s best result there of late. Mikel Arteta would likely bite your hand off for an away point this time around. In the last ten PL games between them, Man City have managed eight wins and a draw, with Arsenal winning just one. The goal ratio in those ten fixtures is 22 to Man City and just four to the Gunners. One slight silver lining for Arsenal is that they are unbeaten in their last two games against their title rivals.

Potential Implications

The implications are pretty simple and pretty huge for this one. Last season, Man City finished two points above Arsenal. That means a win against your title rivals could very well decide the trophy itself. We often talk about six-pointers down the bottom of the table when it comes to relegation scraps, but they are just as important at the top too. Not only can Arsenal earn themselves three points by beating City, but they can also guarantee that the Citizens drop three at the same time.

Man City vs Arsenal Odds

Betsson is currently offering a wide range of odds on Man City vs Arsenal ahead of this weekend’s top-of-the-table clash!

Man City to win: 1.85

Draw: 3.70

Arsenal to win: 4.50

Last season, this fixture finished 0-0 and you can get odds of 10.00 for that to happen again. A Man City 1-0 win comes with odds of 6.80, 2-0 is 8.60, 2-1 is 7.80 and 3-0 is 15.00. On the other hand, if you fancy Arsenal to cause an upset, a 1-0 win to the Gunners comes with odds of 11.00 or 2-1 will get you 13.00.

We also offer odds on the outright winner of the PL this season, with Man City and Arsenal expected to push each other all the way. Man City are currently favourites to lift the trophy for a fifth time in a row at odds of 1.90, with Arsenal coming in at 3.00.

You can browse Betsson’s full range of betting options for Man City vs Arsenal HERE.

Score Prediction

It is hard to see anything but a Man City home win. Not only are the reigning champions extremely dominant at home, but they have also consistently gotten the better of Arsenal in this fixture over the past five years. That being said, Pep Guardiola’s side did look vulnerable against Brentford last time out, particularly in the opening 15 minutes. If the Gunners start fast and hold firm, they might be able to get something out of the game… albeit unlikely.

Score prediction: Man City 3-1 Arsenal

PS: The odds might have changed since the writing and publication of this article.

Last Updated: 20.09.2024