Betting Tips: Boosted Treble from Lars Sivertsen
10 min
The first round of the season is out of the way and we’ve all had a first look at the teams. Which means we know a lot more than we did last week. But now the challenge becomes not overreacting to just one game…Here’s a new boosted treble and three single bets!
By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson
Boosted treble of the week
Brighton – Manchester United
We start out on the south coast where Manchester United visit Brighton. The very young Brighton boss Fabian Hürzeler got his team off to a winning start against Everton last weekend, and it was a convincing performance to boot. Leaving aside for a second that Everton had a man sent off in the 66th minute, what Brighton did really well was use their quick, skilful players to stretch Everton and open up more space than we’re used to seeing a Sean Dyche team allow to the opposition. Watching players like Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh run at Everton last weekend, you have to feel that this is a dangerous game for Manchester United.
Dangerous specifically because United are prone to giving opponents too much space to run into. Fixing the much-dreaded doughnut formation United tended to adopt last season will surely be a big priority for Erik ten Hag this season, and with the additions made in the transfer market so far this summer he will be better equipped to do so. But I’m not entirely convinced this has been fixed already, and when you imagine Brighton’s speedy wingers running at the likes of Casemiro and Harry Maguire, you sense that Brighton could have some joy here.
All that being said, I don’t quite trust Brighton enough to back them outright. What I instead want to do here is pick “both teams to score” for our weekly treble. United were not 100% convincing against Fulham last Friday, but they did rack up a very solid xG of 2.4 in the end.
As we kept saying with Manchester United last season, even if the team isn’t playing well there is so much attacking talent in this team you would still back them to get at least a goal in most games. And of course, this season it’s entirely possible that the team will be playing better overall.
I think Brighton, with their enticing phalanx of quick, tricky attackers should be able to do some damage here at home – but I’d also back Manchester United to get a goal at some point. So, by that logic, it makes sense to add “both teams to score” here to our weekly treble.
Crystal Palace – West Ham
We’re going to go looking for more goals at Selhurst Park, where Crystal Palace takes on West Ham. Palace lost 2-1 in the end against Brentford last weekend, but they put up a spirited performance and had a very reasonable 14 shots in that game. Palace have inevitably been weakened by the departure of Michael Olise, but Eberechi Eze is still around and I believe Daichi Kamada will prove to be a useful addition to the team. West Ham weren’t bad against Aston Villa in their opening game, but they allowed a few too many chances against them at home for my liking. Villa, admittedly, are a better team than Crystal Palace – but it looks to me like West Ham still, still, haven’t fully replaced Declan Rice in terms of ball-winning in central areas. The danger at this time of year is reading too much into the very limited amount of football we’ve seen so far from these teams, but West Ham last week did not look to me like a team that will go to Selhurst Park and shut out Crystal Palace.
At the same time, with Joachim Anderssen leaving for Fulham and continued questions being asked about Marc Guehi’s future, the Palace defence is likely to be less settled here than it’s been in a while.
And with guys like Lucas Paqueta and Mohammed Kudus in the team, you would always back West Ham to create a fair number of chances. For me this has “both teams to score” written all over it and I am happy to add that selection to our weekly treble.
Southampton – Nottingham Forest
Lastly on this week’s treble we’re heading back to the south coast, in this case to Southampton. Russell Martin’s team put in an admirable performance in many ways last weekend against Newcastle, but they were unable to put their chances away, conceded from a bad error and lost 1-0 after having been a man up for over an hour. The Southampton boss took a lot of positives from the performance and given the way his team dominated possession away to Newcastle that is understandable.
But I also saw a few of the things that worried me about Southampton ahead of the season: Iffy goalkeeping, a playing-style which is too easily punished at this level, and unimpressive finishing up front. It was just one game, overreacting to limited data is a danger at this time of the season, but I still suspect that this could be the story of Southampton’s season.
Nottingham Forest under Nuno Espirito Santo are no world beaters, but I expect them to be somewhat more of a pragmatic team. Their opening day fixture against Bournemouth was nothing to write home about, but they were mostly able to stop Bournemouth from doing their thing and the evergreen Chris Wood managed to open his account for the season.
One of the more noteworthy aspects of the game was the performance of Ibrahim Sangare in midfield. The Ivorian was considered something of a coup when Forest signed him from PSV last summer, but he had a difficult first campaign in the PL. At PSG he looked like a potentially brilliant defensive midfielder, and with him next to Forest’s home grown workhorse Ryan Yates the team should have a very solid midfield – even with Danilo now very injured for the foreseeable future. I really quite like Forest’s attacking midfield area with Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga – I think there is enough pace and energy there to pounce on any unfortunate giveaways by Southampton.
It’s a bit of a punt, but then the odds reflect this (if you pick Nottingham Forest to win as a single you get a price of 2.85) and it’ll give us a fairly tasty price overall for our treble this week. I think Southampton’s style of play makes them very vulnerable in this division and I think Nottingham Forest have the tools to punish them.
I believe Nuno’s men can triumph on the south coast so I am picking Nottingham Forest to beat Southampton as the third selection on my weekly treble.
Normally this treble would get you a price of 6.96, but Betsson have increased the odds to 8.00! Good luck!
Selected singles
Crystal Palace – West Ham
For our selected singles we are firstly heading back to Selhurst Park and picking up my old favourite “both teams to score + over 2.5 goals” at a price of 2.05. I like “both teams to score” for all the reasons outlined in the treble analysis, but as a single pick I find the price of 1.65 to be a little bit tepid. I would say that there is a risk of 1-1 here, but if we add “over 2.5 goals” to both teams to score and we get a price of 2.05, and I definitely think the extra risk is worth it for that price.
Bournemouth – Newcastle
Next up we are going to keep looking for goals, and we’re going to keep heading to the south coast, this time to Bournemouth. Andoni Iraola’s team had a forgettable opening day draw versus Nottingham Forest, and now they face a dangerous Newcastle team at home. I say dangerous, we all know Newcastle’s capabilities by now – and really this should be a high-tempo game between two teams who both want to press aggressively and attack quickly after regaining possession.
What makes the game particularly interesting to me are the absences in Newcastle’s defence. With Sven Botman, Jamal Lascelles and Fabian Schar all unavailable, we could see a central defensive pairing of Dan Burn and Emil Krafth – which is not exactly ideal. I still don’t feel fully comfortable going against Newcastle here, I think they have so much energy and athleticism that I worry they can exploit the spaces Bournemouth inevitably leave behind them. But still, the defensive absentees mean I am very happy to back Bournemouth to at least get a goal. Meanwhile, I have very little faith in Bournemouth’s ability to keep a clean sheet against this Newcastle attack, so “both teams to score” it is. And again, with the price on a simple “btts” looking a little bit low for my liking, I am slapping on “over 2.5 goals” so that we end up with a very backable price of 1.74. “Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals” is, again, my pick here.
Liverpool – Brentford
Lastly we’re going to head to Anfield and revive a bet that was a pretty good route to success for us last season: “Liverpool to win + both teams to score”. Liverpool had a bit of a slow start in the first half against Ipswich last week, but in the second they looked more like themselves and tore their newly promoted opponents apart with some ease. They face a sterner test here against Brentford, but then Liverpool were the best home team in the league last season with 15 wins, three draws and just one defeat at Anfield. Different manager this time around, but largely the same team. It remains to be seen if Arne Slot can recreate the kind of Anfield aura the team had under Jurgen Klopp, but I still feel very comfortable backing them to win at home against teams we expect to see in the lower half of the table this season.
But, will they keep a clean sheet? I suspect maybe not. Last season Liverpool kept just 10 clean sheets out of 38 league games, the same record as Fulham and Crystal Palace. And Brentford can provide an awkward test for Liverpool here: The Bees are well known for being dangerous on set pieces, and with a front three of Brian Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa and Kevin Schade they have pace to burn up front. Whether they hit them on a counter or on a set piece, I would expect Brentford to get a goal at some point here. Betsson have priced “Liverpool to win + both teams to score” at 2.25, and I think that is a very enticing bet this weekend. Last season “Liverpool to win + both teams to score” landed in 10 out of 19 Premier League games at Anfield, so just over 50%. I think Brentford are reasonably well equipped to at least hurt Liverpool, so I think 2.25 on that outcome this weekend is very backable indeed.
Good luck!
PS: Please note that the odds might have changed after writing and publication.
Last Updated: 22.08.24
